What a start to the year…

Got your shopping list ready? Close your eyes and accumulate over the next few months.

You’ll be reading about two things from the economists:

1) Supply Shock – This will come back online faster than people expect and most likely the China + 1 model will become stronger, expect for more investments through domestic markets ex China to prevent such a supply chain issue from happening again. This will take years to play out.

2) Demand Shock – Difference between this period and the 2008 period is that the service industry faced a shock – the labour force will have seen their salaries drop by 1/8 – 1/4 this year, this doesn’t rebound as quickly. People will have to pay off debts, save etc…So I doubt you’ll see luxury sales doing well. But core products/services will recover.

Note: MTD is for the month of March hence the 0%

    • haha. If I knew I’d be sailing the islands of the world…

      I think shipping will go through the roof over the next 1-3 years.

    • Until May I think the Thai market is ok. (unless there’s a sudden spike in cases in SF and NYC then the US markets will go crazy => rest of the world going nuts). Why May? 1Q20 #’s + dividend season = weak market.

      • peter satrapa-binder

        yes, the big unknown here is how long the coronavirus problem will persist and what damage it will still cause.

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