Market Update 10/03
The popular news today is that the digital wallet news is coming back. Other than that…let’s see what happens.
Over the weekend I watched this report on Thailand’s debt situation on youtube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hpCpEm6PeE. It’s everything we know i.e. demographics, people overspending, covid leading to multiple issues, and its decently made – worth your 40 mins.
I’d only add that 1) Prayuth’s government killed the middle class 2) Go further back and it’s the entire political system that have killed their middle class due to the past 2 decades of fighting 3) There is a simple solution – flush the system – multiple bankruptcies – let there be blood on the streets, the poor and mid are already suffering – it’s just the larger players that aren’t (for now). “Oh but everyone will suffer” – Simpleton response hey if the banks go under – there’s no debt to be paid back :p
Random thought – Is culture downstream of politics? Saw this on x.com the other day – is it true? It does explain to me the way that businesses here act, you’d be ruthless/selfish if you had to deal with a political system such as Thailand’s. Despite the country being marketed as the land of smiles, in the business/political world – it’s a real dog-eat-dog world, zero true friends, everyone owner appears to be looking over their shoulder. It’s been interesting to observe over the past 2 decades being here, my initial questions/observations were “why are they so rude?” “Why don’t they focus on expanding the market, as opposed to just focusing on market share and refusing to grow? Doesn’t it make more sense if the market grows from 100 to 200, in exchange for giving up a bit of market share?” to “Damn, if they allowed 1 entrant in – that entrant may kowtow better to the higher ups better, and they’ll lose their market, industry position, and the business would be gone in a few years”
Back to the market – double bottom in the SET?
peter satrapa-binder
Thx for the link, I will have a look at it.
1.) I believe now finally reality is catching up with the thai stock market.
2.) generally, a one-time steep cut would probably be preferable to a long, drawn out decline. but regarding ‘let there be blood’, this might become true literally, not only figuratively.
3.) there had not been any planning from any thai government’s side since ages. all which had been done and is done had been temporary handouts or temporary subsidies for certain products (like the rice scheme a few years back), but no concerted planning how to elevate – for example – education, competitiveness in today’s world, learning of new technologies, etc. so,others in ASEAN – malaysia, vietnam, indonesia, which are direct competitors – have been and will be pulling ahead of thailand.
Sure, there will always be some good and able companies and business people in thailand which/who will be successful. but that will be their own making, not because of good any government support and policies (or even despite government policies).
4.) the about only economic thing which is running good in thailand is tourism. but there is a limit regarding thailand can sustain in good condition. and if that limit will be reached (soon?), then what?
5.) SET double bottom: yes there is, but not regarding the short and sharp deep downdraw during covid the current level is already somewhat lower than the previous one had been. before it was though that the support is at app. 1,200. now we are are already quite considerably below this level.so,where will the next support be? 1,000?
6.) I’m afraid to say that there will be a sh…load of problems awaiting thailand in the near-term future. or should i better say that they are here already?
Paul A. Renaud
Thanks for those sanguine comments….The Thai SET remains very bearish with no caveats in sights. Mostly due to lack of real reforms besides the ongoing near recessionary economy. One culprit few talk about are: the brokers here which have “forever” relentlessly promoted trading/speculation vs. responsible investing…in time too many get burned and so never come back. This has been ample proven for decades in the US, and so is a shunned practice envers retail investors.
The other culprit is the lame SEC regulatory lack of real enforcement of the rules….despite multiple scandals along with insider trading – yet still no jail sentences ever levied. I so for long only view highest proven reputable companies, I know well, with ultra high dividends….until some real changes emerge.
I watched your YouTube link on Thailand’s consumer debt situation, thks for sharing. It’s everything so many of us know….the real culprit is the lack of proper usuary-interest levied protective consumer laws which rattle and sattle the Thai poor and ever more disappearing middle class.
BTW, I wrote several letters on this topic to the Bangkok Post editor, none on this very subject, were ever published. Sad.
Here you can see a bit more on this, as I just summarized it: https://thaistocks.com/content/rattled-thai-consumer-loan-usury-practices-or-lack-thereof