Market Update 23/03
And now BKK and large provinces/cities in Thailand are shut down. Anybody else want to follow me by calling this government a bunch of flaccid incompetent donkeys? Stimulus package? What stimulus package? Maybe they’ll buy a few more tanks and submarines as that’ll boost the (I)nvestment in GDP
Ok cynicism aside, I’m of the viewpoint we are going to see a great bear market relief rally over the next few weeks. After that we have 1) Dividend season and 2) 1Q20 #’s being released which are going to be ABSOLUTELY AWFUL. And so the market may continue further downwards in May. Or not I could be wrong. Still hold to the thinking that this period and for the next 2-3 months are the greatest buying opportunity (in strong balance sheet names). If I’m wrong, we’re in a zombie apocalypse.
7 thoughts on “Market Update 23/03”
You touched on an interesting topic for yield investors. I see infrastructue funds decline, close to NBV. Yet, the distributions will keep coming. My instinct is, if I do not need the money, ride it out. Keep the rest of my power dry. The day trader side of me pops up every so often, as the SP of these staid entities are quite volatile.
Depends on the infra fund, you’ll see a YUGEEEE drop in Samui PF, BTSGIF. What about power? they’ll see a -10-15% drop in power usage this year…
Pon, first and foremost, I wish you and your family and your staff safety. You live in one of the toughest environments. we like in Khanom, and have fresh breezes from the Gulf and a less stressful local population. You have been an invaluable guide to me in my investment strategy. ‘thank you’ Stay well. Don.
Thanks Don, all’s well here.
thanks, Pon. i have very little invested in power (North Bangkok infrasturcture fund). I am overweight in DIF. I am aware they have a debt restructuring shortly, which will affect cash flows to an unknow extent. may I ask if your crystal ball sees this type of ”utility” being hit equally, by a shut down, please? tks a lot, I know youre super busy. so appreciate you taking any time at all to respond. 2 words would do – yes or no 🙂 .
A bit confused, are you asking re the power IFF (if so which one) or DIF?
sorry about confusion. My mild form of OCD flares at times where I can’t control what’s happening to our retirement funds (we’re in our late 70’s). So – here’s the question; are DIF’s earnings exposed to the impact of the virus on the economy, since it is reliant on cash flows from TRUE ? many thanks for your interest. Don.