Market Update 26/01
Bull: Elections & Divvy season + the potential of a government that lasts more than a year + has policies & execution better than the military donkeys. And the market is CHEAPP excl DELTA & GULF. Divvy’s below THB 20 bn market cap are 5%+ for the co’s that are paying.
Bear: It’s still amazing Thailand, and FDI & tourism doesn’t have enough of a positive delta on the domestic earnings.
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peter satrapa-binder
Arguments for Bear (and I mean long-term Bear):
– app. 1mth. ago, financial analyst (from TTB bank? I do not quite remember) wrote that thailand risks to drop from 2nd in ASEAN to 5th in a few years if things don’t change. behind singapore, malaysia, vietnam and indonesia.
– today article in bangkok post comparing recent GDP growth, etc.of vietnam and thailand. GDP growth, incoming tourism growth, number of exporting companies, lower energy costs, lower production costs – in all these things vietnam beats thailand. percentage of STEM students too.
– add to that the now quite bad demographics of thailand and real structural changes would be needed.
it doesn’t look gook. sure, there will still be some able companies doing ok business but the overall picture is not pretty.
Pon
That’s also assuming that things don’t change (I suspect they will – but what the positive delta is I don’t know). Can’t fight demographics, pain will eventually show up in the fx like japan.
peter satrapa-binder
Until now haven’t seen any signs of positive changes yet. Have waited for them for years now.