Thailand is on holiday today and tomorrow. But as of writing nothing “serious” in the media/corporates have appeared. Thus the same story continues.

Vietnam had 3 new cases for the first time in 100 days and their market is -7% over 2 days. Granted that market daily value traded is an 1/8 of Thailand’s so the volatility is higher, should testing increase in Thailand and there are more cases could we see the same here?

Looking at commodities….they’re moving up quickly, oil is lagging due to its own oversupply issues in storage for the time being, once nearly cleared (~3-6 months it seems), I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go as well…stagflation thesis seems to hold thus far.

Protests are happening again, thankfully relatively calm, unlike the yellow & red shirts (btw if you know any yellow shirt supporter that is currently fed up with the current government, just laugh in their faces). But the chorus is growing throughout the country which is different versus being in Bangkok only. I continue to see it growing, if it gets violent then the same playbook applies as per the past.

  1. peter satrapa-binder

    @ covid: vietnam is a good example for the case that a country just cannot let its guard down, at least as long as there’s no vaccine or really powerful medication for treatment available. i.e. i think that international tourism worldwide will likely remain to be down down until the second half of next year at least…

    @ risk of protests getting violent: it’s not IF – according to my experience unfortunately very often the question is only WHEN… this is the same everywhere, be it in europe, in the usa (some – very few – looters during protests) or in asia (hong kong for example; thailand in the past). of course this does not mean that all protesters are violent. but even if 90 or 95% or more of the protesters are peaceful – it’s the remaining 5% or 10% (most often even much less) one has to worry about (and it’s often such a small group who really damages a protest’s chances to succeed and provokes a violent response from the authorities against the WHOLE protest).

  2. Covid is like playing whack a mole
    one will always pop up and there will be a knee jerk reaction

    There is no vaccine – not even for the AIDS virus and thats 50 years ago

    But lets not turn this into a non business forum

    Finances will continue to be hit hard as there is a knock on effect that happens right through the business world – add to that the psychology of this event and there is a cost to this as well

    The World is connected and with the USA elections coming fast anything (as it already has) can happen

    • peter satrapa-binder

      hi kevin,

      agreed! regarding not to turn this into a non-business forum, ok, here is: tourism and related business will be hit hard and probably for a long time to come; i’d be rather pessimistic regarding those. finance/banks surely will suffer some and hopefully will be able to withstand the pressure (increasing NPLs, etc.). if the financial system would crash then it would also affect industries which otherwise should basically remain to be ok.

      online businesses and online platform providers should have quite good outlooks. in my opinion. medical businesses too (except ones who mostly rely on international medical tourism).

  3. I don’t understand the insular thinking; politics and civil discontent have a strong influence on market sentiment.

    SET is a tiny market, skittish, and arguably not very well supervised, so if the rumblings were to kick off again it could very well swoon, and fast.

    While those at the top are good at making the right noises for political interest, nothing will stop them from feathering their nests whichever way it goes, but for smaller investors it pays to focus at least one eye on what’s happening in the street.

  4. I was only suggesting that as with many forums the interaction is more than often hijacked and Convid is one of those issues like religion and politics and footy that can take over.

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