• 4G!!! From a green light to a red light to back to a green light. News has announced that the NBTC will go ahead with the auction of the 2 telecom licenses on the 900-MhW and that it has been approved by the board, thus 15 Dec looks like a go.
  • AIS being sued by TOT – Wait, again? deja vu? is TOT bankrupt yet again? Is this just a media storm for the government to win votes? Or will they really go after ADVANC properly? If so that could be THB 108 bn that AIS has to pay back. If not, then the dip in the stock price will be another buying opportunity.
  • SSI’s lasting impact –  the Thai press TISCO have confirmed they will need to make more provisions and although not official I expect SCB and KTB will do likewise. According to the local press TISCO’s exposure is Bt 4 Bln, or at least that is what it was when the syndicated loan was issued. Again why doesn’t TISCO just come and state what we all know “We @#$#ed up with that stupid loan to SSI because we wanted to be a premium investment bank, obviously we do not know how to do credit analysis and now have to write off that huge loan which represented 20% of our shareholders equity at the time, BUT we hope to piggy back on the next government policy to drive up our earnings.” So if they do the provision, I’ve read estimates of THB 2bn in the 3Q15, do note thats close to 50% of 2015 projected earnings.
  • Floods floods floods – You would think 4 years after one of the worst floods in the history of Thailand that something would’ve been done. However just these past few days Pattaya flooded after heavy rains due to the weekend tropical depression Vamco. The Meteorological Department warned that heavy rain will continue in the next three days. Five provinces, mostly Eastern Thailand, and Pattaya, were declared flood disaster zones. Oh and Bangkok is sinking, will the governor of Bangkok have anything clever to say this time? Btw impact on hotels/tourism? Short term. As usual.
  • So the Fed – Nothing happened, USD has become weaker, equities, bonds are mixed and the VIX is done to zero. Most commentators are now pointing their fingers towards December, who knows? And frankly who cares? It’s not if/when they hike, its more of the rate of the hike…then again what if they lower rates in the future? Impossible? Look at Switzerland, Germany and Japan.
  • The BOT – Not to be left out, earlier in the week the BOT decided to keep rates steady @ 1.5%. They now state they expect GDP growth below 3% this year and are looking forward and hoping for greener pastures for inflation and economic growth next year. So what? If oil prices rally back up and government infrastructure spending actually kicks off,  then don’t be surprised to see inflation pick up and interest rates go higher in 2H16. If not then expect lower interest rates for a while. Fun times.
      • Let’s look at this SSI exposure from an accounting perspective. The additional exposure for SCB and KTB is 8B baht which is under a worst case scenario a quarter of earnings gone for KTB or approx 0.5 eps. So if investors panick or overreact and start dumping shares at a larger discount than the actual damage then you could be getting a value buy.

        • Still no confirmed creditor agreement, or time-frame on repayment/re-negotiation. TISCO/KTB are planning on writing off the debt, SCB will wait till the deadline. If SSI decide to cut the cancer and sell their UK division, how much do their creditors get each? And what effect does this have on their NPL numbers?

          Once these issues get cleared up, then sure I’d be inclined to take a position, most likely in KTB (10bn incoming from KrisdaMahanakorn / Somkid’s SME injection). Q1/16 can’t be any worse than Q1/15 can it? *tumbleweed*

          • Jay what I am saying is the worst case scenario of getting nothing, KTB has already provisioned and thus expensed 12Bn. The remaining exposure is 8Bn which is peanuts when you look at their market cap, on he other hand AIS may be in trouble if they have to fork out 60Bn to TOT…

        • Yup, in the end it is relative peanuts and in a year from now (if not sooner) people will forget about it and move on, and each of the 3 fincos will report “strong” YoY improvements in earnings.

        • ADVANC will pay nothing for the next 10 years mate, since TOT has to take this through the courts.

          Watching KTB crater today is only making it more attractive, but it will be well into 2016 before we see 20 baht again.

  1. It is indeed the cheapest. Bear in mind, 6 months ago it wasn’t worth wiping your, uh, shoes with, whereas the future was brilliant for TISCO according to “the analysts.” To his credit, Pon failed to forget that POS SSI loan–when will he come to his senses and either learn to forget…or forget to learn?

    There was a classic dip in TCAP when the bank ceased its buyback. Nice. The de facto owner-operator is Scotiabank. Scotiabank is out of Canada, No. 3, and did not go broke, or anything like it, during/after the Wall Street seize-up of ’08. We are always buying management. True, I look at the D/E and wonder. Then again, nobody’s perfect.

    Parenthetically, Jay, you also may have noticed the date stamps of many of the comments on this site. Pon has attracted a readership of serious amnesiacs. Stock market cowboys out on the range, just looking for that edge….

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