There was a lot happening this past week, of interest to me is the Thai government looking to sell some stakes off in public and private enterprises.
Thailand
  • MPI drops 5.3% in Songkran month of April – The Manufacturing Production Index in April plunged 5.3 per cent from March as some manufacturers took more days off for the long Songkran festival than last year.  The sluggish global economy also depressed exports, especially of hard disk drives (HDDs), televisions, ornaments and electrical appliances, Siriruj Chulakaratana, deputy director of the Industry Ministry’s Industrial Economics Office, said yesterday. (The Nation, 29/5/15)
  • FPO links 3.7%growth forecast to rise in exports, govt spending – The Fiscal Policy Office expects the economy to expand by 3.7 per cent this year provided no less than 70 per cent of the government’s investment budget is disbursed and exports rise by 0.2 per cent, said Kulaya Tantitemit, director of the FPO’s Macroeconomic Policy Bureau. (The Nation, 29/5/15)
  • Weaker baht benefits exporters – The baht is expected to retreat further against the US dollar, and its positive effect on exports should be apparent in the third quarter, says Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula. (Bangkok Post, 29/5/15)

  • Shippers’ forecast dims – Thai exports face contraction for a third year in a row after shipments shrank by nearly 4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2015, say exporters.  Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), yesterday said overall shipments would see flat growth at best this year after declines of 0.41% last year and 0.32% in 2013.  (Bangkok Post, 29/5/15)
  • Thailand ‘stable’: Moody’s  – Moody’s Investors Service says Thailand’s “Baa1 stable” rating is supported by a very strong government financial position, well-diversified economy and high foreign reserves. (The Nation, 29/5/15)
  • NLA gives nod to inheritance tax – The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) yesterday passed an amended inheritance tax bill following its third and final reading. The original version of the bill proposed by the government sought to impose a 10% levy on bequests that exceed 50 million baht. The revised version demands a 10% levy on bequests exceeding 100 million baht, but if recipients are the parents or children they are only required to pay 5% tax. (Bangkok Post, 23/5/15)
  • Ministry seeks to unload stakes – The Finance Ministry wants to sell stakes in some state enterprises and state-backed firms to raise 100 billion baht towards their 720-billion-baht debt, which the ministry plans to move from those companies’ balance sheets to the government’s own.  The draft bill on fiscalising state enterprise debt incurred under previous governments’ policies lets the government use proceeds arising from shareholdings in state enterprises to pay the debt, Finance Minister Sommai Phasee said. He said the government should divest itself of unnecessary stakes in state enterprises and private companies but declined to say which state enterprises would be targets. As of last Sept 30, the Finance Ministry owned 51.11% of PTT Plc, 51.03% of Thai Airways International Plc, 70% of Airports of Thailand Plc, 65.8% of MCOT Plc, 26.02% of TMB Bank Plc, 9.98% of Bangchak Petroleum Plc, 13.81% of Padaeng Industry Plc, 16.67% of MFC Asset Management Plc and 20.45% of NEP Realty and Industry Plc. The ministry held less than a 2% stake in Siam Commercial Bank Plc, Tisco Financial Group Plc, Tongkah Harbour Plc, Yarnapund Plc, IRPC Plc, PTT Exploration and Production Plc, Krungthai Bank Plc, Khonburi Sugar Plc, NFC Fertilizer Plc, True Corporation Plc and Italian-Thai Development Plc. The bill will be submitted for approval by Mr Sommai and Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula this month before heading to the cabinet in the next two months. (Bangkok Post, 23/5/15)
  • Employment hit by farm slowdown – Thailand’s unemployment edged up in the first quarter due largely to a slowdown of employment in the agriculture sector caused by drought and reduced rice farming in the absence of a government rice pledging scheme. (Bangkok Post, 26/5/15)
  • Ministry in divestment push – The Finance Ministry is poised to kick off plans to raise 100 billion baht to pay towards the 720-billion-baht debt with the sale of its shareholdings in nonlisted companies. (Bangkok Post, 26/5/15)
  • FTI urges Finance Ministry to facilitate an increase in loan guarantees for SMEs – The Federation of Thai Industries has urged the Finance Ministry to issue regulations that will help boost the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation’s loan guarantees for small and medium-sized enterprises from 18 per cent to 30 per cent. (The Nation, 26/5/15)
  • Chamber foresees economic recovery in Q3 despite export, agriculture concerns – The Thai Chamber of Commerce remains concerned about the agriculture and export sectors, despite seeing clearer signs of an economic recovery in the third quarter of the year, which will be driven mainly by tourism and the expansion of cross-border trading. (The Nation, 26/5/15)
  • TISI continued to drop in April – The Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) has declined for four consecutive months – from 92.7 points in December to 87.7 points in March and 86.2 points last month because of the economic slowdown and drought. Scores below 100 indicate negative. (The Nation, 26/5/15)
  • VAT collection continue to increase – Thai economy is on track for recovery, supported by the increase in VAT collection of 12.7% in April, said Krisada Chinavicharana, director general of the Fiscal Policy Office. (Daily News, 27/5/15)
  • Cabinet approved Bt1.41trn Public-Private Partnerships Plan – The cabinet approved a draft strategic plan yesterday for public-private partnerships worth 1.41 trillion baht, mainly in infrastructure and public transportation services. The five-year plan (2015-19) prepared by Boston Consulting Group (Thailand), which was hired by the State Enterprise Policy Office, will be announced later in the Royal Gazette .Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the deputy government spokesman, said the plan would be divided into two categories – enterprises that deserve joint private investment and those in which the government supports the role of private investment. The first category covers six enterprises including city’s rail mass-transit development, tollways, ports, high-speed trains, telecommunications network development and high-speed internet systems. The second category covers 14 enterprises including inter-city motorways, inland container depots, joint ticketing systems, business development and space management at airports, water management, irrigation, waste treatment, public education institute development, public health development, medicine and medical equipment development. (Bangkok Post, 27/5/15)
  • Exports fall again but at lower rate – Exports fell for a fourth consecutive month in April but at a lower rate thanks to the weaker baht and rising oil prices. The smaller contraction is making authorities hopeful that figures will turn positive within a couple of months. The Commerce Ministry yesterday reported April exports declined by 1.7% year-on-year to US$16.9 billion. Exports of agricultural goods fell by 3.9% year-on-year last month to $2.6 billion, in line with the downward trend in global farm prices, particularly for rubber, which saw shipments drop by 25.9%. Industrial exports dropped marginally by 0.3% last month to $13.2 billion due mainly to weak shipments of oil and related products such as chemicals and plastic pellets as well as gold. However, higher exports were seen for electrical circuits, automobiles and auto parts, electrical appliances and parts, and computers. For the first four months of this year, total exports were valued at $70.3 billion, down by 3.99% year-on-year. (Bangkok Post, 27/5/15)
  • Exim Bank vows strong support for border trade – Border trade rose to Bt990 billion last year, with cross-border exports accounting for Bt590 billion or 8 per cent of the country’s total export value, according to the Export-Import Bank of Thailand.   Total export value by the end of 2014 was US$227.57 billion (Bt7.68 trillion), and the top four markets last year were China, the United States, Japan and the European Union, which accounted for 11, 10.5,9.6 and 9.5 per cent, respectively. The economies of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) are expected to expand by 7.2, 7.3, 8.3 and 6 per cent, respectively, this year and their average gross domestic product is expected to continue to grow by 7-8 per cent annually over the next five years. (The Nation, 28/5/15)
  • Globally
  • U.S. Jobless Claims Rise, But Job Growth Still Seen Strong – The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, but the level remains consistent with an economy that is adding jobs. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S. economy, increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 in the week ended May 23, the Labor Department said Thursday. (WSJ, 25/5/15)
  • Pending Home Sales Hit Highest Level in Nine Years – A forward-looking gauge of U.S. home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in April and reached its highest level in nine years—the latest evidence of firming demand in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors said Thursday its pending home sales index, which is based on contract signings for purchases of previously owned homes, increased 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted level of 112.4 in April from an upwardly revised reading of 108.7 in March. (WSJ, 28/5/15)
  • British GDP growth in Q1 unrevised at 0.3 pct, recovery on track – British gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2015, unrevised from the previous estimate published a month ago, confirmed the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Thursday. (Xinhua, 29/5/15)
  • Japan’s auto output in April down for 10th straight month – Japan’s vehicle production fell 8.2 percent in April from a year earlier to 668,095 units, down for the 10th straight month, data released by carmakers showed Thursday, amid lingering negative effects of last year’s consumption tax hike. (Xinhua, 28/5/15)
  • Japan Retail Sales Regain Ground – Japanese retail sales jumped 5.0% from a year earlier in April, government data showed Thursday, regaining some ground after a tax-induced lull last year. But spending was almost flat from a month earlier, indicating that the effects of spring wage increases at large companies have yet to shore up overall consumer sentiment. (WSJ, 27/5/15)
  • U.S. Fed on track to interest increase this year: Yellen – U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to raising its benchmark interest rate this year despite the weak performance in the first quarter. (Xinhua, 23/5/15)
  • British fiscal deficit narrows to 6.8 bln pounds in April – British government saw a fiscal deficit of 6.8 billion pounds (or 10.6 billion U.S. dollars) in April 2015, a decrease of 2.5 billion pounds compared with a year earlier, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Friday. (Xinhua, 22/5/15)
  • Domestic demand supports German growth: Destatis – Domestic demand was the driving force behind a slight growth of German economy in the first quarter of 2015, while foreign trade made a negative contribution, said German statistical office Destatis on Friday. When adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar variations, Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased quarterly by 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2015, said Destatis, confirming its preliminary calculations earlier this month. (Xinhua, 22/5/15)
  • BOJ maintains massive stimulus policy, says consumption showing signs of uptick – The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday decided to maintain its massive monetary easing policy and gave a relatively positive assessment of the state of the economy based on rising consumption and investment as the effects of last year’s tax hike begin to wear off, although issues of the pace of inflation still remain. (Xinhua, 22/5/15)
  • Japan logs 53.4 bil. yen trade deficit in April – Japan posted a goods trade deficit of 53.4 billion yen in April, the government said Monday. Exports rose 8.0 percent from a year earlier, while imports dropped 4.2 percent, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report. (Kyodo, 25/5/15)
  • ECB Slows Bond Purchases After Indicating Pace Would Accelerate – The European Central Bank slowed purchases of public-sector bonds, even after saying it would accelerate buying before liquidity dries up during Europe’s summer vacation period. (Bloomberg, 25/5/15)
  • Fed rate hikes may trigger global volatility: Fischer – When the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, it should weigh the effects on global economies and can expect some bouts of financial market volatility, a top Fed official said on Tuesday. (Reuters, 26/5/15)
  • U.S. new home sales rebound in April – Sales of U.S. new homes rebounded in April, a sign of rising demand which underscores the recent surge in housing starts and permits. The sales of new single-family houses in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 517,000, 6.8 percent above the revised March rate, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. (Xinhua, 27/5/15)
    Reserve ratio or interest rates cuts more likely in June: analysts – China is likely to announce another bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut or interest rate cut in June, analysts told Xinhua on Tuesday. (Xinhua, 26/5/15)
  • Unemployment rates fell in 23 US states in April as hiring recovered from weak March – Unemployment rates fell in 23 U.S. states in April as hiring rebounded nationwide from weak job gains the previous month. The Labor Department said Wednesday that 11 states reported a higher unemployment rate than in March, while 16 states saw no change. Forty states gained jobs, and 9 states posted job losses. (CHEK news, 27/5/15)
  • Greece turns to balances of dormant state accounts to repay IMF loan –  Greek government on Tuesday turned to the balances of dormant state accounts in an effort to collect funds to repay the next International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan installment on June 5, as Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis assured there will be no credit event next week. (Xinhua, 27/5/15)
  • French consumers express more pessimism in May – French consumers showed more pessimism about their financial situation in May, with the monthly sentiment indicator declining to 93 points, one point down from April, the national statistics bureau Insee said Wednesday. (Xinhua, 27/5/15)
  • HSBC cuts 2015 China growth forecast – HSBC cut its forecast for China’s 2015 GDP growth to 7.1 percent from 7.3 percent and raised the expected interest rate cut forecast from 25 basis points (bps) to 50 bps on Wednesday. The adjustment comes as exports registered weaker-thanexpected growth so far this year, a reflection of softer external demand and a stronger yuan. More aggressive easing policies are needed to support growth, HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin said in a report to clients. (Xinhua, 27/5/15)
  • China’s industrial profits up 2.6 pct in April – Profits of Chinese industrial businesses increased 2.6 percent year on year to 479.5 billion yuan (78.3 billion U.S. dollars) in April, official data showed on Wednesday. (Xinhua, 27/5/15)

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