1. The government is considering shortening the visa exemption period for tourists from 60 to 30 days to prevent misuse for illegal resettlement or criminal activities. The change would affect visitors from more than 90 countries currently eligible for the 60-day waiver, although extensions of 30 additional days may still be requested.
2. COMMERCE: Five major consumer goods makers (Nestlé, F&N Dairies, Sahapatibul, BJC, Unilever) have signaled possible price increases in April as energy, raw material, and logistics costs rise.
3. Growth Risk: TRIS Rating sees 2026 GDP at 2.1% base, but could slow to 1.8% (3-month conflict) or 1.0% (6-month), highlighting downside risks from weaker tourism and higher energy costs.
4. Energy / Tariffs: ERC reviewing new Ft tariff guidance, with LNG prices rising ($12 → $25/mmbtu) and weaker baht increasing pressure for potential electricity tariff hikes in the May–Aug period.
5. BANKS: SME loan demand deteriorates in Q1. The SME Confidence Index dropped by nearly 19 points to 50.2 in 1Q26, down from 68.9 in 4Q25. The decline was attributed to concerns over rising oil prices and higher production costs, which have affected orders and business operations. Looking ahead to the 2Q26, 66.2% of SME entrepreneurs expressed demand for loans, down from 93.7% in the previous quarter.
6. Tourism: The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) is stepping up oversight of airfares amid disruptions linked to the situation in the Middle East, and is working with six airlines to cut ticket prices during the upcoming Songkran holiday by 15-30% while adding more than 29,000 seats over this busy period. The CAAT has coordinated with THAI, BA, AAV, NOK, Thai Lion Air and Thai Vietjet to expand capacity and ease travel costs during Songkran holiday, from April 10-15 on 11 round-trip routes, including BKK-Chiang Mai.
7. TH tourism authority targets 37mn foreign visitors this year, +11% from 2025, a target that looks increasingly shaky. Arrivals below 33mn would mark a 2nd consecutive y/y decline.
8. TH Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) considers raising power tariff for May-Aug due to rising LNG costs. Proposals to be discussed today at 2PM. A likely scenario is an increase from the current tariff of THB3.88/unit by THB0.07 to THB0.71.
9. Diesel prices at service stations nationwide have increased by Bt1.80/liter to Bt32.94, said the Oil Fuel Fund Office late Mon. The fund has been subsidizing diesel at nearly Bt2.4b/day, or about Bt70b/month, making the adjustment necessary. The move also aims to narrow the price gap with neighboring countries, such as Malaysia, to deter smuggling and hoarding.
10. Tourism sector: To bolster state coffers, the government is looking to greenlit the Bt300 entry fee for foreign arrivals. While the projected Bt10.5bn revenue (based on a 35mn arrival target) is a fiscal win, the timing is contentious. YTD arrivals to March 22 stand at 8.54mn (-3% YoY) with top 5 inflow from China, Malaysia, Russia, India and South Korea, suggesting that the 35mn target is optimistic given current headwinds. Severe airspace closures and a “fly-around” strategy have spiked ticket prices. Europe-Bangkok routes are currently 50–100% more expensive than 2025 levels. Meanwhile, short-haul remains the primary drivers. Regional flights are only 20–30% higher, making Thailand a “defensive” choice for Asian travelers opting for shorter, cheaper trips. 

Grok 

1. PM Anutin Charnvirakul wins parliamentary reelection (March 18–19) — First reelected PM in two decades. Bhumjaithai alliance secures 292/499 seats; Anutin wins 293 votes. Coalition with Pheu Thai and smaller parties now controls >290 seats for rare stability.
2. PM Anutin faces backlash over unpaid traffic violations — CSI LA exposé shows nearly 2 dozen unpaid fines on his vehicles; police probe the leak instead of the violations (Thai Enquirer thread).
3. Thaksin Shinawatra parole eligibility — Former PM (76) among ~500 prisoners possibly released as early as May 11 (late-March updates).
4. Fuel-price hike dominates political discourse — 20% gasoline jump (≈6 baht/litre) after price-cap abandonment. PM Anutin’s January campaign quote (“Stop, we can’t handle being this rich”) resurfaces; government’s 7 relief measures called “half-baked.”
5. Public fears over oil prices — KPI Poll (March 13–16): 78.9% concerned about living-cost impact; confidence in government split (46.2% confident vs 40.4% not); South region most confident, Bangkok least.
6. Fertilizer stockpile flip-flop — Caretaker Commerce Minister Supajee Sutthumpan grilled after shifting from “sufficient until August” to “only until April.”
7. 3 Thais arrested for smuggling cheaper Malaysian petrol (Bangkok Post, March 27).
8. Neutral stance on Middle East — Caretaker PM Anutin reiterates Thailand’s neutrality while managing domestic fallout (early March updates).
9. 2026 GDP growth forecasts held at 1.6–2.0% — Thai business group (JSCCIB/FTI) and Krungsri maintain outlook but warn of downside from Middle East conflict.
10. Middle East/Hormuz risks slash growth — Central bank chief: possible 0.1–0.2 pp dip; private sector warns of 0.3–0.8 pp reduction or even 1.3% if prolonged; diesel could hit >40 baht/litre by May.
11. Petrochemical & supply chain warnings — Potential 13.8% cut in output, 14–34% plastic/naphtha price spikes, 10–20% packaging cost rise if Hormuz closed 3 months.
12. Fertilizer import risks — Thailand imports 95% of needs (5–6 mt); shortages possible after August; 1% price rise could cut rice yields 0.06%.
13. Cabinet approves 1-baht diesel excise-tax cut — First step, pending Election Commission approval; deeper relief would strain fiscal position (Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn).
14. SET 3-year strategic plan (2024–2026) — Aims to raise capital-market confidence; stock market currently consolidating near 1,430 points.
15. Tourism & freight impacts — Potential 390k–980k fewer arrivals (THB 25–64 bn loss) if disruption lasts; freight rates to Europe +24%.
16. Power tariffs & jet fuel — Expected rise in Q4; airfares remain high due to >100% jet-fuel surge.

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