Aiiihhheiii, I mean Achoo! Thailand… sell the bits that go into the technology boom, then queue up to buy the phone. Wonderful. But are we actually getting richer or just upgrading the camera we use to complain about the economy? A bit of AI, a bit of Apple fever, and the usual question… where’s my somtum dollars going?

AI sneezes

Well, we have all been wondering when the AI boom would have its “little” bust and what they may mean for the SET and voila here you go. For Thailand, there’s only one counter that matters and that’s DELTA which peaked back in July north of 350 and now sits at 175, and yet still sits at PE multiple of 77x.

What happened? The ladyboys of the USA beat the crusty corrupt Neocons and the global technology names sold-off due to fears of tighter US scrutiny of AI and slower data centre development. Note the word fears. This isn’t evidence of an enacted ban, cancelled DELTA orders, or everyone suddenly deciding they no longer need electricity. The share price moved. What has changed in the business? That’s a separate question. But my random thinking is that should data centres be postponed in the US…well, that’s going to improve the FCFF of Google/Alphabet and friends and wouldn’t that just lead to the stocks being pumped again? But yes DELTA and the supply chain could absolutely derate further in such a scenario.

Now look at the actual activity. The BOT’s September table, released with its 30 Oct report, shows electronics export value up 77.3% YoY. Its commentary links stronger exports and data centre investment to the global technology and AI cycle. So there is something happening here beyond the share price and the AI label. Nevertheless we all know that I’ve thought DELTA was overpriced since it went north of 20x back during wuflu….so what do I know…

Anyways looking at these export figures… whose recovery is this? If the heavy lifting comes from the technology cycle, we’re relying on somebody else’s investment budget. Great when they’re spending. Less fun when a committee in America changes its mind and the screen in Bangkok turns red. Different countries, same weather… how diversified are we or any tech exporting nation really?

Apple fever

I think back in 2017 or so I finally succumbed to the fact that humans will continually buy iPhones no matter how much better an android device will be. And that used to be an easy trading cycle on the stocks, but then it also led me down some rabbit holes that Thai consumers are overspending, taking on more debt, domestic consumption is down and I would love to purely blame Apple’s products for this.

Specific to a phone shop, have a look at a name like SPVI. Its Q3 net profit rose 112.79% to THB 66.39m, whilst total revenue grew 1.09% to THB 2,116.06m. Double the profit on almost the same revenue. Lovely for SPVI. But hang on… that isn’t the same as everyone suddenly having more $ to spend

So where did the profit come from? The margin. Kaohoon reports gross margin moving from 9.95% to 11.93%, with gross profit up 21.23%. It attributes the improvement to better supplier discounts and a higher share of non-Apple products, alongside demand for Mac and iPhone products. Oh oops it’s a non-Apple bit in an Apple-fever story.

That’s the distinction. The retailer keeps more of each sales baht, profit jumps, and we get a wonderful headline. It doesn’t mean customers bought twice as much stuff. Good for the company? Yes, if it lasts. Proof that the Thai consumer is back? Meh… a bit more work needed before declaring that…

Two Thailands

Because over at the BOT, the September private consumption indicator was up just 0.1% YoY, after 3.6% in August. The BOT says spending moderated, particularly in services such as hotels and restaurants, as living costs weighed on consumers. Electronics exports racing ahead, consumption barely moving on that monthly YoY measure… these are different series, not a contribution-to-GDP calculation.

Could people be buying the phone and cutting back elsewhere? Possible. Does SPVI’s result tell us that? No. We haven’t followed the same customers from the phone shop to the restaurant, the local shop and the bank. We have a retailer’s product mix, not the household budget. There’s no checked evidence here that the iPhone displaced those other purchases.

And before blaming the borrowing… trade-in and instalment programmes. That tells us how the products are made accessible, not whether the buyers are comfortable, stretched, or replacing something they need. Some could have perfectly healthy wallets. A busy phone shop doesn’t answer that question either.

Still… same wallet, more things fighting for it. If the upgrade gets the discretionary baht, who doesn’t? The restaurant? The local shop? Is consumption weak everywhere, or are some businesses losing the fight for the same customer? Who knows. The new camera may be fantastic, but it still can’t pay the electricity bill. Here’s the phone history, then the debt alongside it…

What, if anything, this says about phones and borrowing is a question, not an answer, but I’m a simpleton and will absolutely come to the foregone conclusion that Apple is solely responsible for the increase in consumer debt to GDP in Thailand, those damn dirty foreigners! (Can I run for PM now?)

Interconnectedness

Back to the beginning. We sell into the technology cycle, then buy the technology. One gets labelled exports, the other consumption, and somehow we’re meant to put the two together and say the country is doing well. But where does the $ stay? How much will the overseas customer keep spending on infrastructure? How much does the Thai retailer keep from the sale? And how much reaches everyone else?

Youtube clip

There’s nothing better than listening to a northern brit talk about investments

Financial Repression, Debt & the Future of Money | Russell Napier — Part 2 (The MOST Important Thing Podcast, 12 Oct 2026)

Grok Summary:

On to debt of a different size… Russell Napier, the Edinburgh-based financial historian and keeper of the Library of Mistakes, with Dr Alan O’Sullivan. His starting point is China’s 1994 decision to manage its currency against the dollar. In his telling, China became a price-insensitive buyer of US government bonds, pulled the risk-free rate away from growth, made debt cheap and helped push US stocks up. And he means TOTAL debt, government, household and corporate, not just what the G owes. His numbers: roughly 250% of GDP for the US, 234% for the UK, 294% for China, about 320% for France and 390% for Japan. China went from about 140% in 2007 to around 290%, which he calls unparalleled for a big economy in peacetime.

How does the G get out of it? His menu: austerity, no political appetite; default, holes in other people’s balance sheets; hyperinflation, only after the savings are already gone; fast real growth, not something politicians can just order. What’s left? Financial repression. Force savers into government bonds at yields that eat their purchasing power, slowly and then quickly. He points to the UK’s planned “mandation” powers and the post-war experience. By his account gilt holders lost over 80% in real terms, and France ran inflation of about 40% against bond yields of 6% for three years after WWII. Equities protected savers last time… but he notes the S&P 500 was on under 10x cyclically adjusted earnings in 1949 and is near 40x now. His warning: don’t assume the same result from a very different starting price.

His other worry is capital going home. By his figures foreigners own $61.5tn of US assets, about $34tn of it liquid portfolio money, plus 53% of French government debt, so if Japan and Germany repatriate, he names the US and France as the likely losers. What he likes instead are cheap value stocks and gold, owned in size rather than as a token 5-10%. In his words, that takes courage more than intellect. His view, not advice, and the figures are his as of the 12 Oct 2026 upload.

And I’m done!