On the road for 4 of 5 weeks – great time for random thoughts and notes… Commodity cycle for dummies Owned the commodity names from 2020-2023, then own the capex beneficiaries of the commodity names from 2024-2027, then own the names that benefit from the decline of commodity prices as supply hits the globe, 2028-2035, […]

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Thai CowsYou start with two cows.You payoff the government to create an oligopoly for raising cowsEventually you become prime minister promising free milkA military coup happens, you leave the country. your children continue to run the cow business Malaysian CowsYou start with Two cowsYou hire a Chinese businessman and keep 30% of the profits, just […]

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Ok, that’s not quite accurate. But here’s the news… SF Holding to Take Over Kerry Logistics for $2.3 Billion – Bloomberg “SF Holding Co., one of the largest Chinese package-delivery services, is seeking to acquire control of tycoon Robert Kuok’s Kerry Logistics Network Ltd. in a HK$17.6 billion ($2.3 billion) deal for its global expansion.“ The impact is […]

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Congratulations Thailand, you’re one of the worst performing markets in the world (granted the country has a week left to turn it around, perhaps DELTA will race to 1,000 and save every mutual fund in the country.) A quick rant for the year (or future) – nothing changed – (ok fine, the POS overleveraged co’s […]

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What? TC looking @ bonds? Yes, for $hits and giggles…given that there’s been a lot of noise about companies being unable to rollover/payback their bonds, well it’s probably prudent to be paying attention to this section of Thailand’s capital markets. And as I like to laugh that MQDC is the next STARK/JKN to be unable […]

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It’s been months since my last Random Thoughts, I’ve found a bunch I saved on evernote…so sit back, grab a patongo and enjoy. Models – poorly borrowed from Dilbert’s creator, Scott Adams, and modified slightly. Thailand – international bonds issuance? https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2670539/thailand-eyes-international-bonds Thoughts: This, to me, is an important indicator for Thailand – 1) domestic liquidity […]

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A (sort of) New SET calculation After years of sitting on their butts the exalted individuals that are running the SET have instead of deciding to fix the free float requirements of joining the SET50 (hello DELTA), instead they are going to launch a brand spanking index that will take into account the free float […]

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Shingles: 8 days of migranes & 5 bed ridden days, sleeping 12-15 hours/day and now I can semi open my right eye and stare at a laptop again for more than 5 mins w/o screaming pain. I kicked covid 2x in 3 days, but this shingles is next level. I’m still likely quaratined in a […]

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Prayuth is not an idiot, he’s been in control of Thailand with his buddies for the past 9 years. Anyone in charge of a country for that long has to be one wily clever sob. But has this incredible intelligence translated into an amazing stock market performance for Thailand? The clever folks here have conducted […]

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