Decree not a ruse to stay in power:PM : Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is not maintaining the emergency decree for the purpose of protecting his own power, said government spokeswoman Narumon Pinyosinwat. Bangkok Post More to ‘seeking the truth’ laser campaign than meets the eye, academics say : The laser projection of political messages on […]

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So 1Q20 #’s are done, and were generally well-protected due to the fact that pain only started towards the end of Feb. 2Q20 will show the real impact with April and May having effectively zero transactions for the majority of businesses. So now what? The OPEC+ deal to cut supply lasts for 2 years, yes […]

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Ministry to issue savings bonds soon : The Finance Ministry plans to offer special savings bonds worth 50 billion baht to the public to give taxpayers more investment alternatives to earn higher income as low interest rates and economic uncertainty prevail. Bangkok Post Economic rehab plan en route : A 400-billion-baht borrowing plan intended for […]

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The recovery rally had a slight dip last week, but appears to back on today. The next 3 months is going to be interesting, news of economies opening and weak financial results (all done by this week for Thailand). How far will investors look past the #s? How far ahead will investors price in the […]

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B400bn necessary for rehabilitation : With exports and tourism likely to slow until early next year because of the coronavirus crisis, Thailand desperately needs to inject 400 billion baht worth of spending slated for economic and social rehabilitation by June, says Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak. Bangkok Post Auto lenders post marginal loan growth : […]

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And now the fun starts. 1Q earnings are continuing to be released for Thai companies/region/world. Economies are going to begin opening up. What is currently being priced into the markets/sectors/names? Hope? Reality? Will there be a disappointing in how slow the economy opens up? Several businesses are gone, salaries are lost, debt has been accumulated. […]

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SME soft loans open for applications: Commercial banks to relay customer list to BoT. On Monday, the Bank of Thailand plans to kick off applications for the 500-billion-baht soft loan scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) affected by the coronavirus, with banks expected to start taking out the loans from the central bank late […]

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Unemployment soars to 700,000 as factories close : The number of people claiming unemployment benefits has almost doubled to 700,000 people from December last year, with 140,000 registering in March alone. Bangkok Post TAT expects 16m international tourists : Revised outlook a far cry from pre-outbreak target as Vshaped recovery sought. Thailand is likely to […]

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And the rally continues. Several clever analysts have shown that for the US markets a “bear market rally” could go on for 8 weeks. Our response is “we don’t know” Thai airways keeps going…hmmm, and SCB has cancelled their sharebuyback stating they want to help companies and individuals due to the Wuhan-Virus, or is there […]

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Note: 2 weeks worth of rambling here Models There’s been a lot of chatter online, especially in the US and Europe regarding the forecasting of the wuhan-virus and the changes in forecasts on infections/deaths. Having built more than enough financial models in my career attempting to forecast the potential revenues/cashflows/profits etc of a company/industry my […]

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