1. Politics — Thailand’s Constitutional Court is due to rule on Sep 28 on whether barcodes and QR codes used in the Feb. 8 general election compromised ballot secrecy by potentially allowing ballots to be linked back to individual voters. The key market risk is the possibility that the court finds the violation sufficiently serious to invalidate the election, which could trigger a new election and leave the current government operating in a caretaker capacity during the transition. Other outcomes range from finding deficiencies without overturning the nationwide result to dismissing the case. With policy continuity and investment execution important to Thailand’s current FDI and infrastructure cycle, the ruling represents a near-term political risk event for the SET, particularly if it creates uncertainty around major policy decisions and investment approvals.

2. Semiconductors/Infineon — Germany’s Infineon will officially open its new Samut Prakan semiconductor manufacturing site on Oct. 1, establishing Thailand as a production base for advanced power modules used across EVs, energy storage, industrial automation, data centres and AI infrastructure. The highly automated facility will be complemented by R&D, local supplier development and semiconductor workforce programmes, with more than 5,000 Thai jobs expected when the project is fully ramped. The investment provides a tangible early example of Thailand’s semiconductor strategy moving from policy ambition toward physical production, while supporting the government’s push to deepen domestic technology capabilities and supply-chain localisation.

3. Energy Transition/Grid — A government screening committee is set to consider around THB70.8bn of energy-transition projects, ahead of potential Cabinet consideration on Sep 29. The package includes THB50bn to support solar rooftops for 1mn households, equivalent to at least 5GW of new capacity, alongside THB17.7bn of PEA grid investment covering smart meters, 200MWh of BESS, mobile substations and EV charging hubs, and THB3.14bn of MEA smart-grid upgrades. Importantly, parts of the grid investment are designed to accommodate rising renewable generation as well as EEC, data-centre and Direct PPA demand, reinforcing the investment case around Thailand’s electrification and grid-modernisation cycle. The projects remain subject to approval.

4. Brokerages — Thailand’s brokerage industry returned to profitability in 1H26, recording aggregate net profit of THB5.37bn versus a THB1.48bn loss a year earlier, supported by stronger market activity and reversals of credit provisions. Industry revenue rose 37%, while average SET/mai trading turnover increased around 58%; revenue from overseas securities businesses rose 133%.

5. SET/JUMP+ — SET will hold its first JUMP+ Investor Day 2026 on Sep 26, giving investors access to 56 participating listed companies and their three-year growth and value-creation plans. The broader JUMP+ programme now includes 142 listed companies, with plans covering business growth, governance and greenhouse-gas management.

6. SEC/Capital Markets — The SEC backed amendments to four capital-market laws after the House accepted the bills in principle. The proposed changes cover six areas including digital capital-market infrastructure, supervision of securities and derivatives businesses, fundraising and related service providers, investor protection and stronger enforcement powers. The bills will now proceed to detailed parliamentary consideration.

7. Tourism — Thailand is targeting 1.5mn US visitors in 2026, versus 1.08mn last year, as tourism policy increasingly focuses on higher-spending long-haul travellers. US arrivals reached 716,983 through Sep 20, leaving the full-year target challenging but reinforcing the strategy of prioritising tourism receipts and visitor quality alongside headline arrivals.

8. MACRO — TH – US remain apart over tariff negotiations that have stretched. Anutin and Trump had been expected to speak 17-18Sept to conclude the negotiations, but the call did not take place. Thai officials have yet to announce a new date. Commerce Minister Suphajee said last week that most issues had been resolved, with remaining points being negotiated with the Office of the US Trade Rep before being escalated. TH currently faces a 12.5% US tariff on most covered exports under a Section 301 action tied to restrictions on imports made with forced labor. TH is seeking treatment comparable with regional peers, which face a lower 10% levy. VN and the PHILs, like TH, are subject to 12.5%. The two sides are discussing access to TH’s mkt and the treatment of US companies seeking to invest in the country. One sticking point is likely US access to Thailand’s pork market. American pork is effectively barred because TH regulations prohibit the use of certain feed additives commonly used by US producers.

9. ETRON – BOI updates — TH approved its first national semiconductor and advanced electronics strategy, targeting $80bn new investment by 2050 and to build a domestic chip industry. The planlaims to generate $150bn annual revenue and create >230k jobs. The strategy seeks to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain spanning chip design, wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, testing and high-value electronics under a “Made in Thailand” chip initiative. The plan will be implemented in three phases through 2050, with the government initially seeking to strengthen assembly and testing, expand advanced packaging and lay the groundwork for front-end wafer production by 2030. The govt will prioritize photonics for Al and DCs, power semiconductor for EVs, energy storage and power grids, and sensors for automation, automotive and medical applications.

10. Fitch revised its outlook on EGAT, PTT, and PTTEP to Stable from Negative, affirming all three at ‘BBB+’. Bank sector: Follow Fitch’s Outlook revision on Thailand’s ‘BBB+’ sovereign IDRs to Stable from Negative on 18-Sept, the credit agency has revised the outlook on the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of 5 of 6 Thai banks to Stable, from Negative, and affirmed the Long-Term IDRs of all 6 banks, as follows: (1) BBL TB affirmed at ‘BBB’, Outlook Stable (2) KTB TB affirmed at ‘BBB+’, Outlook revised to Stable (3) TTB TB affirmed at ‘BBB’, Outlook revised to Stable (4) Standard Chartered Bank (SCBT) affirmed at ‘A-‘, Outlook revised to Stable (5) United Overseas Bank (UOBT) affirmed at ‘A-‘, Outlook revised to Stable (6) Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM) affirmed at ‘BBB+’, Outlook revised to Stable.

Bonus 7

11. ADB raised Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from its July projection of 1.8%, while 2027 real GDP growth projection was cut to 1.9% from 2.0%, 2026 inflation cut to 2.5%, down from its prior forecast of 2.9%, compared with a 0.1% contraction in 2025.

12. Aviation — Global jet fuel market surges 7.4% in one week This results in a severe increase in “airline” costs. Low cost airlines are the hardest hit. CAAT points out that the impact on domestic flight routes is higher than international. The reason for the tax structure is “low cost”, fuel costs reaching 60%, airlines are urged to plan their business carefully.

13. Following US sanctions of all Iranian Int’l flights starting Wed, flight tracking site Flightradar24 showed half-a-dozen services originating in Iran and heading to destinations including BKK and Phuket; Shanghai; and Kabul, Afghanistan. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier that those who ignore the penalties “will be knocked out of the dollar system.” AOT and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) said they hadn’t received any regulations or directions from the Thai gov to stop the flights, but left the door open to suspending flights if directed to do so by Thai authorities.

14. SME credit — Government launched Nano Plus, a THB2bn credit-guarantee programme targeting >100k micro SMEs and self-employed borrowers, starting with THB500m in phase one. Guarantees of THB5,000-50,000 per borrower will be offered through banks and regulated non-banks, broadening formal credit access at the smallest end of the economy. This complements Thai Chuay Thai Plus by supporting both household purchasing power and micro-business liquidity.

15. Cannabis — Cabinet approved draft legislation restricting cannabis to medical use only, tightening cultivation-to-sale traceability, inspections and penalties. Existing dispensary licences will expire progressively through 2028, with businesses wishing to continue required to become licensed medical facilities with qualified practitioners. The bill now goes to Parliament, marking a further tightening from the broad decriminalisation introduced in 2022.

16. BOT also sees limited risk of severe capital outflows despite the US–Thailand rate gap, supported by net foreign reserves above US$300bn, equivalent to 2.8x short-term external debt, while foreign portfolio flows remain around THB50bn net positive YTD. Policy remains accommodative as recovery is below potential and uneven, while inflation is expected to remain within the 1–3% target range despite higher oil prices.

17. Domestic conditions remain softer. The Office of Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion (OSMEP) says 70.5% of SMEs remain under pressure or lack sufficient income for new investment, while 81.9% face higher costs. The government is moving toward a Thai Chuay Thai Plus extension for Oct–Nov, retaining the 60/40 co-payment structure, with Cabinet consideration expected on 22 Sep; the Thai Restaurant Association is seeking broader eligibility for smaller restaurants.

Grok

Snapshot: Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai) is in New York mixing UNGA81 diplomacy with a capital-markets roadshow. At home the Senate collusion case, a possible censure fight, a medical-only cannabis bill, farmer aid delays, and a still-unsettled US tariff deal dominate politics. The SET is holding near 1,609 (YTD roughly +25–27%), led by electronics/data-centre names such as DELTA, while household and farmer discontent is louder in Thai-language social media than in English coverage.

Political News

1. Anutin at UNGA81: UN reform, Cambodia, Myanmar, Palestine
On 24 September Anutin told the General Assembly Thailand wants UN reform, a stronger voice for smaller states, bilateral talks with Cambodia (UNCLOS only for maritime delimitation), and support for Myanmar reconciliation and Palestine peace efforts. He also flagged UNODC cooperation against drugs and cross-border online crime.

2. Cambodia border: “genuine effort” on trust
Anutin pressed Phnom Penh to rebuild border trust. Earlier in the window, the Thai army said Cambodia agreed to fill a trench and remove wire at Hill 450 near Chong Sa-ngam. UN-backed UNCLOS conciliation over maritime claims (offshore resources estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars) remains a parallel track.

3. Senate election collusion case
The Election Commission referred dozens of people—figures cited this week range from 36 to 77, including sitting senators linked to the “blue camp” around Bhumjaithai—to the Supreme Court. A Nida Poll showed a split public reaction. The opposition (People’s Party) accused the EC of leniency toward BJT figures and threatened legal action. The case is the week’s main institutional risk: it could thin the upper house and feed a censure narrative.

4. DSI director appointment
Cabinet named Piya Raksakul DSI director-general. Critics say he sat on a Senate-election panel and that the pick looks political. Justice Minister Rutthapon denied it was a reward. The opposition has already used DSI budget and impartiality as a pre-censure theme.

5. Kla Tham / Thamanat and the whip
Kla Tham (Capt. Thamanat Prompow, ~58 MPs) was dropped from the opposition whip after defying a line on the FY2027 budget. Talk of Kla Tham drifting toward Anutin’s government intensified after photos of matching Casio watches. That would change arithmetic ahead of any no-confidence motion.

6. Censure and parliament summons
People’s Party figures (including Rangsiman Rome) have moved to summon Anutin over a local-government exam scandal tied to aide Thongchuea Chatkitcharoen. A no-confidence motion against Anutin and Digital Economy Minister Chaichanok Chidchob has been flagged for this month.

7. Cannabis: medical-only bill
Cabinet approved a draft limiting cannabis to medical/research use—the third attempt to close the post-2022 gap. Licences run 3 years; shops expire 2026–2028 and most would need to become medical facilities. Sale to under-20s and pregnant/breastfeeding women banned. Ironic politically: Anutin was the minister who opened the market.

8. Yingluck rice-pledging retrial rejected
On 23 September the Supreme Administrative Court refused a retrial in the 10-billion-baht rice case. The Shinawatra legal overhang remains in the news even though Paetongtarn is no longer PM (removed 2025 after the Hun Sen phone-call case).

9. Farmers vs cabinet
Pheu Thai and farm groups attacked delayed ฿1,000-per-rai rice aid; two deputy premiers were named as targets. Finance Minister Ekniti was quoted as questioning the scheme’s effectiveness. This is the sharpest “cost of living vs roadshow” contrast of the week.

10. Other political/admin items

• Cabinet approved six Justice Ministry appointments.

• EC asked the Constitutional Court to rule on Senator Thanagorn’s eligibility.

• Democrats asked the State Audit Office to probe the ฿1.62bn TH-AI Passport project.

• Cheating in state exams to be criminalised; offenders blacklisted.

• Naruphon Yenprasert won the Nonthaburi PAO race.

• Four men received life (commuted from death) for a 2022 Pattani bombing. Southern attacks also killed defence volunteers in Narathiwat and an assistant headman in Yala.

Country & Economic News

11. SET–NYSE MoU and Opening Bell
On 24 September SET and NYSE signed an MoU (dual listing, products/indices, information exchange). Anutin rang the NYSE opening bell—the third Thai PM to do so. Officials pitched dual listing as a complement to the BOI-to-IPO push for New Economy and foreign-owned Thai entities.

12. Wall Street grilling / investment pitch
Funds said to manage over US$40 trillion questioned Thailand on geopolitics (US–China), ageing labour, and growth quality. Anutin cited H1 investment-promotion applications of ฿1.37 trillion (+80% YoY), manufacturing depth, AI/data-centre supply chain, and fiscal/reserve buffers—while promising stricter energy and water rules for data centres. Meetings included BofA, Jefferies, PIMCO, Microsoft.

13. US tariff deal “taking shape”
Anutin said the desired tariff rate is essentially agreed, with one extra US condition still open. Commerce Minister Suphajee wants a deal before Washington finishes investigations that could add tariffs. Last year’s path was 36% → 19%; Thailand also faces a separate ~12.5% labour-related tariff versus ~10% for some neighbours. A Trump call has been floated.

14. Japan: “firms will keep investing”
In Tokyo Anutin rejected reports of a Japanese manufacturing pull-out, stressing EVs and clean energy. Nidec separately said it would exit Cambodia production over the border conflict and shift work to its Thai base.

15. Growth, debt, structure
Q2 GDP grew 1.9% YoY (from 2.8% in Q1)—below a 2.6–2.7% potential. Private investment jumped 13.4% YoY, the strongest in 13.5 years, led by AI, data centres and clean power. NESDC’s Danucha warned public debt is racing toward the 70% ceiling; debt service exceeds ฿400bn a year and tighter budgets are needed for 2–3 years. Official GDP views for 2026 cluster around 2.3–2.5%.

16. EU FTA and UPOV 1991
Bangkok will not commit to the UPOV 1991 plant-variety treaty at next week’s Phuket talks. Farmers and NGOs fear seed-market concentration; the ministry says more time is needed.

17. Weather, logistics, energy, navy
Heavy-to-very-heavy rain is forecast through the weekend after an online “great flood” panic. Foreign trucks must fit GPS from 1 Jan 2027. Cabinet endorsed 2026–2029 Oil Fuel Fund and biofuel plans. The navy will retire 10 ageing ships from 1 Oct and selected Hanwha Ocean for a ฿16.73bn frigate. A Nan University bill was approved. Gold prices jumped (Thai retail ~฿68,700).

18. Data centres and foreigners
Authorities closed a loophole after an illegal Bangkok data centre stored 200,000 litres of oil. Anutin told governors to use new deportation powers on illegal businesses, nominees and landholding. Rare protests over Israeli landholding and cultural issues also featured earlier in September.

Corporate / Company News

19. DELTA and the electronics/AI complex
Delta Electronics (Thailand) printed strong Q3-type numbers in market commentary (sales ~฿53.2bn, +23% YoY; profit ~฿7.4bn, +26%), tied to power electronics, automation and data centres. DELTA led Friday morning’s SET bounce (price seen near ฿263, +3%). Electronics was the strongest sector (+2.3% in the morning session).

20. SET tape (25 Sep morning)
SET 1,609.18, +6.60 (+0.41%); SET50 1,078.94 (+0.15%); value ~฿36.8bn (thin vs recent ฿60–70bn days). 24 Sep close was 1,602.58. 52-week range about 1,232–1,658. YTD ~+25–27%. 24 Sep flows: foreigners −฿661m, institutions −฿3.4bn, retail +฿3.4bn. YTD foreign buying remains large (~฿51bn). Brokers flagged PETRO as leadership, resistance ~1,612–1,617.

21. THAI Airways
Q2 profit fell sharply QoQ/YoY after the peak season; normal profit ~฿1.2bn. 1H26 profit was described as ~60% of a ฿17bn full-year estimate. Passenger yield +20% YoY offset weaker cabin factor on Europe/Australia routes. A large lock-up release earlier in August remains an overhang.

22. Webull / Pi Securities
Webull closed the purchase of ~99.36% of Pi Securities for about ฿3.2bn (~US$100m) from Country Group Holdings. CEO Chonladet aims for a 2027 profit turnaround and 3–5 year payback. TTB also launched “My Wealth” linking customers to US stocks/ETFs via Webull.

23. Other deals and names

• Lakeshore Capital’s third Thailand mid-market fund was oversubscribed and capped at US$305m (tickets US$10–50m; up to 30% CLMV).

• Verdant Energy secured up to US$25m from responsAbility for Thai industrial solar.

• Q2 2026 Thailand M&A: 40 deals, disclosed value US$2.1bn (-74% QoQ); largest hospitality portfolio move TCC–Frasers ~US$536m; Hitachi bought the remaining 60% of Arçelik Hitachi Home Appliances (Thailand) for ~US$263m.

• Bond market: funds/insurers/foreigners bought Thai debt in several sessions this week; 5-year yield ~1.72–1.73%.

• A widely recirculated Dtac–True merger item appears to be an old story resurfacing on aggregator sites—treat as not a fresh 2026 catalyst unless SET filings confirm new talks.

24. Governance / listings agenda
SET is consulting on listing-rule changes to pull New Economy, foreign and SME issuers, and is reviewing trading-surveillance rules under a “trusted gateway” strategy. Dual listing with NYSE is the international counterpart of that agenda.

Local Market & Social Media Sentiment

English-language chatter: English posts and outlets this week are diplomatic and investor-facing: UNGA speech, SET–NYSE bell, BOI numbers, Cambodia “trust,” tariff talks, Japanese capex. Accounts such as Thai Enquirer, Khaosod English and government PR dominate. Tone is cautiously constructive: “Thailand as ASEAN gateway / AI supply chain,” with Wall Street still probing ageing demographics and US–China hedging. Retail-investor English talk is thin; SET commentary is mostly broker English-Thai hybrids.

Thai-language chatter: Thai X is angrier and more parliamentary. Recurring tags and themes: `อนุทิน`, `ซักฟอก`, `สั่งฟ้องสว`, `สั่งฟ้องกกต`, `NOระบอบสีน้ำเงิน`. Users mock “developing country” rhetoric, garbage/wastewater failures, and the contrast between a New York roadshow and stalled ฿1,000/rai rice aid. People’s Party MPs (e.g. “Ice” Rukchanok) are praised for on-the-ground inspection work. Sondhi Limthongkul-linked protest energy around the Senate case is visible in Thai PBS coverage. Market Thai posts are tactical (DELTA, GUNKUL, BCH, dual listing) rather than euphoric—volume is called “thin,” US 10-year yields and oil are cited as headwinds even when the index is green.

Gap that matters: English coverage prices stability + FDI + SET YTD rally. Thai coverage prices legitimacy, Senate arithmetic, farmers, and everyday state capacity. That split is the political risk premium: a censure or adverse Senate-court ruling would hit local sentiment first; a signed US tariff deal or real dual-listing pipeline would show up first in English/foreign flow.

Week-ahead watchlist

• Any formal no-confidence filing and Kla Tham’s coalition choice

• Supreme Court / EC next steps on senators

• US tariff “one remaining condition” and possible Trump call

• Phuket EU-FTA round and UPOV protests

• Cannabis bill’s first reading and shop-licence inspections

• SET holding 1,600; DELTA/data-centre leadership vs energy drag

• Rain/flood disruption into the weekend

Sources: Bangkok Post, The Nation, Thai PBS World, Thai Examiner, Khaosod English, SET/SETSMART commentary, broker notes, Thai Rath, and parallel English/Thai X posts from 18–25 September 2026.